NFC Championship
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 6:40 PM)
Saints Offense vs. Vikings Defense
The Saints offense looked dominant last weekend against a mediocre-at-best Cardinals D. Reggie Bush looked like he was back at USC, running roughshod all over the Superdome turf, and Drew Brees was picking the secondary apart like he has all season. The Saints will not be stopped, but they can be slowed down. That is gonna rest solely on the shoulders of Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and the Vikings pass rush. The Vikings pass rush was excellent last week against Dallas and they are going to have to duplicate that feat if they want to beat the Saints. Expect a lot of screens and dump-offs to neutralize that pass rush, particularly screens to Bush, which will open up the longer throws.
Saints Defense vs. Vikings Offense
Brett Favre was amazing last week, with a QB rating higher than 134. Will he duplicate that feat this week? Doubtful. I expect the Saints defense, combined with the best home-field advantage in the NFL, to force Brett into some mistakes. I know he hasn't made many this season, but any QB under that much duress will be forced into some mistakes, regardless of who it is. It will be a very hostile environment. Adrian Peterson is the key here. He NEEDS to take pressure off of Brett Favre and lately he has been in such a funk unlike any we've seen from him in his short, excellent career. Last week he only rushed for 64 yards on 26 carries, he will need to play better this week if the Vikings want to win.
Bottom Line
Both teams were far superior to their opponents last week. I expect it to be much closer this week. The game will come down to Adrian Peterson and if he doesn't get going, then I expect the Saints D to force Brett into a mistake or two, in a game where only one mistake could make the difference. Don't be surprised if Reggie Bush makes another play or two like last week.
Prediction- Saints 31 Vikings 27
AFC Championship Game
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets (Sunday 3:00PM)
Colts Offense vs. Jets Defense
This is the marquee matchup of the weekend. The number one pass offense against the number one pass defense. Wayne vs. Revis. Manning vs. Rex Ryan. The key here is that Peyton Manning has never lost a game against a Rex Ryan defense. When he was D-coordinator in Baltimore, Peyton was 4-0 against him. Ryan has been able to make Manning uncomfortable, but ultimately Peyton makes enough plays to win the game. I expect Manning to be methodical, taking shots as he sees them and not forcing the issue. They will run the ball to keep the defense honest, even though their run game has been non-existent all season. Wayne will be slowed down by Revis so look for A LOT of Dallas Clark, and some major contributions from Collie, Garcon and even Addai in the passing game.
Colts Defense vs. Jets Offense
If the Colts D can step up in this matchup, they will have no problem winning this game. The Colts NEED to stop the run on 1st and 2nd downs, forcing the Jets to put the ball in Mark Sanchez's hands. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis need to harass him all day and force him into mistakes, which everyone knows he is capable of making.
Bottom Line
Freeney and Mathis are the difference makers in the game. The Colts offense and the Jets defense will meet somewhere in the middle of their dominance. The other side of the ball I expect to be one-sided, as long as the Colts can contain that running game. The Colts D is very fast, but they need to be sure tacklers against this dominant running game. As long as number 18 is under center for the Colts, I cannot pick against them, especially when he knows Rex Ryan's defense as much as Rex does.
Prediction- Colts 21 Jets 13
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